(Thanks to Gemini AI)
Lindy Effect, which suggests that for non-perishable things like ideas or software, the longer they have already survived, the longer they are likely to continue surviving. Having survived 35 years of massive technological shifts, Linux has proven its resilience.
The Lindy Effect is a mental model and statistical heuristic which suggests that for certain things, life expectancy increases with age.1
While humans, animals, and machines "age" and move closer to death every day, the Lindy Effect describes things that "age in reverse."2
1. What is it?
The core idea is that for non-perishable things—like ideas, books, technologies, or business models—the future life expectancy is proportional to its current age.3
The Rule of Thumb: If a book has been in print for 50 years, it is expected to stay in print for another 50 years.4 If it survives another 10 years, its new life expectancy isn't 40 years; it actually increases to 60 years.5
2. Why does it happen?
The Lindy Effect isn't magic; it is a result of survival of the fittest.6
Time as a Filter: Time is the ultimate "stress test."7 If an idea has survived for 2,000 years (like Stoicism), it has survived wars, plagues, technological shifts, and changes in fashion. This suggests it is "robust" or "antifragile"—it possesses a core utility that is not easily rendered obsolete.
Information vs. Matter: Perishable things (like a banana) are made of matter and subject to physical decay (entropy). Non-perishable things (like the concept of a wheel) are informational.8 Information doesn't wear out; it only dies if it becomes irrelevant.
3. Where is it applicable?
You can use the Lindy Effect to judge the "staying power" of various things:
| Category | Example of "Lindy" (Likely to Last) | Example of "Non-Lindy" (Likely to Vanish) |
| Literature | The Odyssey (2,700+ years old) | This week’s #1 Bestseller |
| Finance | Gold (Used for 5,000+ years) | A 2-year-old "meme" cryptocurrency |
| Technology | The Hammer (Ancient tool) | A specific VR headset model |
| Diet | Mediterranean Diet (Centuries old) | The "Raw Water" trend |
| Social | Religion / Family structures | Modern corporate "culture" fads |
4. Can it not exist? (Exceptions)
The Lindy Effect does not apply to anything with a "hard" expiration date or physical mortality.9
Perishables: Humans, pets, and organic food have a biological ceiling.10 A 100-year-old man is less likely to live another 100 years, not more.
Fragile Systems: If a technology relies on a specific, fragile infrastructure (like a proprietary software that depends on one server), it may fail regardless of how long it has been around.
Black Swan Events: A sudden, unprecedented shift can kill something "Lindy."11 For example, the horse and buggy was very "Lindy" for thousands of years until the internal combustion engine created a regime shift.
Survivorship Bias: Just because something is old doesn't guarantee it is good; it just means it hasn't died yet. We must be careful not to ignore the "silent graveyard" of old things that eventually did fail.
How to make use of it in our life?
To make practical use of the Lindy Effect, you should treat it as a noise filter.1 In a world obsessed with the "new," Lindy helps you identify what is robust, reliable, and likely to last.2
Here is how you can apply it across different areas of your life:
1. Education & Learning (The "Classic" Filter)3
Stop chasing every new "best-seller" or trending online course. Most of them will be forgotten in two years.
The 80/20 Rule for Books: Spend 80% of your reading time on books that have been in print for at least 20 years. If a book has been relevant for 50 years (like Meditations by Marcus Aurelius), the wisdom inside is "Lindy" and likely to be useful for another 50.4
Focus on Fundamentals: Prioritize learning things that don't change: mathematics, logic, rhetoric, and human psychology. These are thousands of years old and will never be "obsolete."
2. Investing & Business (The "Durability" Filter)
Lindy helps you distinguish between a "fad" and a "fortress."5
Value Investing: Warren Buffett uses this principle by investing in companies like Coca-Cola or American Express.6 Because they have survived for over a century, they have proven they can handle wars, depressions, and tech shifts.7
Avoid "Bleeding Edge" Fragility: Be skeptical of new financial products (like specific new crypto tokens). If it's only 2 years old, it hasn't survived a "Lindy" stress test yet.
Bet on the Non-Obvious: Jeff Bezos famously said he builds Amazon on things that won't change in 10 years (customers wanting lower prices and faster delivery).8 These are "Lindy" desires.
3. Technology & Tools (The "Future-Proof" Filter)
New software and gadgets often die quickly.9 To build a "Lindy-proof" workflow:
Choose Open Formats: Store your important data in
.txtor.csvfiles. These formats have been around since the beginning of computing and will likely be readable 50 years from now, unlike proprietary app formats.Stable Tech Stacks: If you are a developer, choosing a "boring" but established language like C or SQL is a Lindy move. They have lasted decades and are more likely to be relevant in 2040 than the "hottest" framework released last month.
4. Health & Lifestyle (The "Ancestral" Filter)
If humans have been doing something for 10,000 years, it’s likely safer than something we started doing 10 years ago.
Diet: Natural foods like honey, wine, olive oil, and fermented bread are Lindy. Highly processed lab-grown meat or chemical sweeteners are not—they haven't been "vetted" by time yet.
Habits: Walking, fasting, and weightlifting have existed for millennia. They are more likely to be "correct" than a specific new 7-minute vibrating-plate exercise fad.
Summary Checklist:
When faced with a choice, ask yourself:
Is this a non-perishable (an idea, a tool, a habit)?
How long has it already existed?
Has it survived major "shocks" (wars, crashes, tech revolutions)?
If the answer to #3 is "yes," it is likely a safe bet for your time and money.
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